Published amid rapidly unfolding global events, this year’s report provides the intelligence and foresight business leaders and decision-makers need to make informed decisions in an increasingly volatile operating environment.
“The pace of change requires organisations to use foresight and risk assessment as a foundation for building resilience,” said Martin Althén, President Securitas Digital. “The Annual Intelligence Estimate offers leaders the insight they need to evaluate emerging scenarios and stay prepared for what comes next.”
Brave new world: Where there is risk, there is opportunity
The 2026 edition highlights a series of defining shifts, from the resurgence of low-probability/high-impact events to the accelerating convergence of physical and digital risks. It also underscores the increasingly strategic role of security and risk as enablers of organisational performance in a changing world.
The Annual Intelligence Estimate includes:
- Strategic Security & Risk Driver Analysis: key themes, trends and signals influencing the 2026 security and risk landscape for corporations worldwide.
- Corporate Security Intelligence Assessment: threat and protective intelligence analysis.
- Global Risk Intelligence Assessment: global, regional and local intelligence concerns, including geopolitical threats and risk analysis.
- Wildcard Scenarios: high-impact, low-probability scenarios with potential for far-reaching implications for organisations.
- Key Flashpoints 2026: A calendar of dates representing heightened risks to organisations worldwide.
“Organisations are operating in a world where the unlikely is increasingly inevitable,” said Mike Evans, Director of the Securitas Risk Intelligence Centre. “Our aim is to provide the intelligence that organisations need to anticipate disruption, understand potential implications, and respond with confidence.”
A practical guide for security decision-makers
The Annual Intelligence Estimate 2026 equips businesses and decision-makers with the situational awareness and actionable considerations needed to navigate the challenging global landscape. The insights apply across industries and regions and can be complemented with more detailed, organisation-specific assessments tailored by industry, geography or operational footprint.
